Study on varicella epidemic intensity and peak period prediction in Urumqi City from 2019 to 2020

Abstract

Background:
Varicella (chickenpox) is a common and highly contagious disease, especially among children, with seasonal and periodic outbreak patterns. Understanding its epidemic intensity and predicting peak periods are critical for effective prevention and control.
Objective:
To analyze the epidemic intensity of varicella and predict its peak periods in Urumqi City from 2019 to 2020.
Methods:
Epidemiological data of reported varicella cases in Urumqi City during 2019–2020 were collected from the disease surveillance system. The intensity of the epidemic was evaluated using incidence rates and temporal distribution. Time-series analysis and seasonal trend decomposition were applied to predict peak periods.
Results:
A total of [XXX] varicella cases were reported over the study period. The annual incidence rate was [X/100,000], with clear seasonal peaks observed in [months/seasons]. The highest intensity occurred in [specific month/year], accounting for [X%] of annual cases. The prediction model indicated that peak periods consistently occurred in [months] with high accuracy.
Conclusion:
Varicella in Urumqi City exhibited marked seasonality and predictable peak periods during 2019–2020. Timely vaccination campaigns and public health interventions before the anticipated peaks could effectively reduce the disease burden.
Keywords:
varicella, epidemic intensity, peak period prediction, seasonality, Urumqi City