Application of moving average method in monitoring and early warning of hand,foot and mouth disease

Abstract

Abstract
This study evaluates the application of the moving average method in the monitoring and early warning of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). By analyzing reported HFMD case data over multiple years, the moving average technique was employed to smooth out short-term fluctuations and identify underlying trends in disease incidence. The method’s effectiveness in detecting early signals of outbreaks was assessed by comparing predicted warnings with actual case surges. Results demonstrate that the moving average method provides timely and reliable indications of rising HFMD activity, facilitating proactive public health responses. The study supports the integration of moving average analysis into routine disease surveillance systems to enhance early warning capabilities and improve the prevention and control of HFMD outbreaks.