Joinpoint regression analysis of the epidemic trend of natural focal diseases in China from 2011 to 2020

Abstract

Abstract
This study employs joinpoint regression analysis to examine the epidemic trends of natural focal diseases in China from 2011 to 2020. Using national surveillance data, the annual incidence rates of key natural focal diseases were analyzed to identify significant changes in trends and calculate the annual percent change (APC) during the study period. The results reveal varying epidemic patterns among different diseases, with some showing a declining trend while others exhibit increases or fluctuations. Joinpoints indicating shifts in trends were detected, reflecting the impact of public health interventions and environmental factors. The study provides critical epidemiological insights to guide targeted disease control strategies and resource allocation in China’s ongoing efforts to manage natural focal diseases.